It will be so flat as you will be probably able to see Venlo from Zutphen today when Vuelta continues in what should be another warm up for the real tour. Finally the race is live on Eurosport International and will dominate the program starting from 3 BST.
Who will be the lucky winner of the final sprint here? Breakthrough group sounds impossible considering the profile so this one should be another final 100 meters severe battle between the sprinters. Ciolek took stage 2 and Boonen was close but made a mistake when started so early.
I think he will do anything to stay in touch again till the end despite the fact his team mates were a bit shaky on Sunday. It is tough to decide on the winner and I will need to choose blindly from Tom Boonen, Daniele Bennati, Oscar Freire and Farrar (Ciolek won't repeat the success, that's for sure). Hm, Boonen looks stronger than a month ago so i will follow my strategy and hope for the best. Prices are tasty!
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Vuelta 09 Cycling Tips Stage 3
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Vuelta 09 Cycling Picks
As Contador is taking his well deserved rest and Armstrong is mainly planning and "sharking" (talking to Eurosport, too), the peloton will face its final severe race for the year - Vuelta a Espana 2009 starts today with 4.8 km individual effort around Assen’s “TT Circuit”, Netherlands.
A bunch of flat stages follows so we have all the time in the world to preview, tip and predict before Stage 8 starts in this year Vuelta and the mountains test riders power left in the legs after a cruel season.
GC betting market
I know I will need to tip the winner now but also should emphasize that we can build up a smarter strategy when the peloton reaches the Pyrinees later. However prices will drop down from their current tasty status. Talking about odds I will announce bwin as my preferable bookie for this year Vuelta as i found fair prices there on the start (of course, first rule of betting will be kept - i will back up my bets with some bet365 offerings). Opposite to some tactics I will browse teams first in order to ellect my winner. I can easily see two teams with best chances of winning the Vuelta this year - Saxo Bank are here with their first choice line up - this means massive support for Schleck brothers with Andy on the table; Liquigas are also coming with the best possible selection and Basso or Kreuziger, at last (depends on the performance), will have strong legs on their side, specially in the mountains (Szmyd is my favorite "labourer" this season).
Valverde is a huge favorite after being banned from the Tour and has everything to prove at home ground. Bookies just love him - 3.00 and 2.75 for him, respectively in bwin and bet365 - come on, those are not cycling prices for GC at all. I really do not see any value in taking Valverde now at that rates - I am also too suspicious about Caisse d'Epargne skills to support and defend a jersey. I tip Valverde to leave a track in this year Vuelta but it will be more like few stages fireworks than a CG real contender.
Basso is priced at 6.00 - saw he is not the same rider on Giro and Tour of Poland - and Andy at 7.00 - he is young and top climber but after an exhausting Tour is he steady enough to survive even more severe Vuelta - I don't think so. Again, I expect huge performance by both of this riders but it should be not enough to win the general standings at the end of all.
Evans, come on - no jokes any more.
My most likely Vuelta 2009 Winner
...is Samuel Sanchez. People can miss him on the bookies list - but he is there, on the top actually, Priced at 7.00 in bwin Sanches will have suficient support from one mad and strong team of patriots. Just look at Euskaltel - Euskadi line up - Anton, Martinez, Alan and Ruben Perez, Isasi, Hernandez, Irizar, Txurruka - these guys are tough and when we reach the mountains they ill probably expload in attacks and breakthrough groups, as usual. I can not see a weak point in this group and bet on them to produce a massive upset and lead the race after the first mountain stages. Sanchez is mainly known with his downhill skills but I see him as a completed rider with very well balanced power - perfect for a GC contender.
- Eurospost Online Player - to watch La Vuelta stages live in full length, anyplace with Internet
- Official Vuelta Site - track of statistics, images, etc.; friendly English version
- bwin- great cycling betting markets; stage by stage offerings
Enjoy the race and good luck!
Also do not forget to come back at the blog for more daily picks and reviews on the different stages.
Betting Tips on England Premier League
Bukomir's Predictions
Barclays Premier League
29 August, 09
Chelsea v Burnley
ko 12:45 BST
It is hard to find some value in this one as the odds are dropping down on every market. Considering the start of Burnley and the performance against United and Everton at home it looks like a bit under priced home win. I was thinking of Chelsea-Chelsea on the HT/FT market but 1.40 is for an accumulator bet only.
No fresh injuries for both teams. I expect Chelsea defense to start performing on a higher level as they did during the last couple of seasons and keep more clean sheets against visiting teams of Burnley quality. Owen Coyle will probably name an unchanged line up. No lucky goal to defend to death this time, folks.
Bet selection:
I will take a "No goal" option priced at 1.66 on bet365
Blackburn v West Ham
ko 15:00 BST
Third in a row for Sam Allardyce? I think no way to recollect those 1947/48 campaign memories for Blackburn as the team will switch in a must win mode today at home. Looking at the performance Backburn is actually improving the game and it was designed for a point steal in Sunderland until it went wrong with another great Jones effort. Benni McCarthy should return after an ankle knock and score goals. Speaking about goals, Zola has just one fit favorite striker and the injuries and what happened in the crowd will cost his team concentration.Bet selection:
I have no doubts Blackburn will recover home pitch as a fortress - 2.20 offered today by Ladbrokes is a huge price in that perspective.
Wolves v Hull
ko 15:00 BST
I am tipping Wolves for scoring goals on every round but it went all wrong - 0:2 against West Ham at home on the start, followed by 1:0 loss to City, 0:0 in the 90 minutes in the FA Cup. Too many zeros so far! I believe it is time Molineux to see an open battle between quality leveled sides. Doyle is back and this guarantees some action in front of Hull's net. Stephen Ward and Greg Halford are both fit and that means the formation will start to look as sharp as last season when hit the Championship table. I was thinking of a home win here but both teams to score looks more safety option as Hull managed to produce one even on the opening day at London.Bet selection:
I will take Both teams to score - 1.90 on bet365
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies to bet on England Premier League as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, bwin, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
Thursday, August 27, 2009
UEFA Europa League Tips
Bukomir's Predictions
UEFA Europa League
Play Offs, 27 August, 09
Dinamo Moscow v CSKA
ko 17:00 BST
We saw a goalless draw in the first leg in Sofia but the pressure was on Dinamo and CSKA missed their chance to lead the battle with a goal or two. The Bulgarians were perfectly prepared by their coach and produced mature football with added creativity and speed. The crossbar saved Dinamo and kept the hopes alive ahead of the second leg. As you probably remember (if not, just scroll down) we shot this one right taking the FT draw and bringing home a massive 3.20 award from bet365. The draw seems likely to happen again but this time the risk is not worthy as I can find more value on the half time, double chance or goals market.
CSKA came to Moscow in perfect mood leading Bulgarian premier league with 3 out of 3. The team is in great form with the start of the season and is actually improving game after game. What will be a plus: two of the most important players in the midfield are back after suspension in the first leg and will support the attack strongly - Markinios and Stoyanov. Both of them are scoring more often than the strikers so we can expect more pressure on the home defense when comparing to the first leg. Coach Penev is totally unpredictable and what is for sure he has something in mind before this one.
On the other hand Dinamo look down! They have lost badly 0:3 by Rubin and the mood is minor. No many home supporters are expected due to the weak results in the last few games - we can add the fact that Dinamo are actually not playing at home using another stadium (Khimki's ground) close to Moscow. More psychological issues to be decided with the team and this should surely affect the performance - for good or bad.
If you look for safety option on this one - Under 2.5 Goals for 1.75 in bwin looks solid enough and worths a shot. I will take it but also try CSKA or DRAW on the double chance at bet365 for a massive 2.62 or even draw at HT at 2.50 - same bookie.
Bookies seem to be forming odds based on club's budget not on the performance, so let's punish them again.
Good luck!
Bet selection:
Main bet - Under 2.5 Goals for 1.75 on bwin
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, bwin, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Arsenal vs Celtic
UEFA CL
26 August, Wednesday
WON
Arsenal v Celtic
19:45 BST
After we have got Debrecen comfortably yesterday (2:0 home win against Levski) another shot is being prepared for more European glory at the blog.
It looks all clear in this clash as Arsenal dominated the first leg and broke the fortress 2:0. To complete the job Wenger needs 90 minutes of calm, organized, safe football at home - but is this possible with such a squad? I do not think so and the goals will force to come again as the boys' blood is boiling in front of the fans. Arsenal will play with a mind on the big game on Saturday and this can possibly affect the concentration. Everton and Pompey managed to score 1 in their games with the Gunners and even these were done games a question should be raised to Arsenal' defense, specially in the closing stages of the second half.
Tomas Rosicky, Theo Walcott, Lukasz Fabianski, Samir Nasri and Johan Djourou are all still missing and we can add captain Fabregas to the party.
Celtic will come to fight for every chance, as always Scotland sides do and the result of the first leg has nothing to do with that mentality. Rebuilding pride is now on the table and Celtic will not walk alone in this as many fans will travel to support. The team had no idea how to score in the first leg, even how to get closer to Almunia at all. But now it will be a different game as Arsenal will be flying on the wings of successful results and home support. This should open spaces and McGeady should use them properly with his speed and accurate shoots. Remember what happened in Moscow in the previous round? I bet on Celtic to continue fabulous away run this season and score a goal at least.
Bet Selection:
Both teams to score
Top Price:
bwin is offering 2.00
Bookmaker of choice:
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
UEFA Champions League Tips
UEFA CL
25 August, Tuesday
WON
Debrecen v Levski
19:45 BST
After a short brake at the blog we are back with Champions League action and the value seems to be on the home side here. I watched the first game 90 minutes (1:2 away win for Debrecen) and it was clear Levski have not the squad to compete in the groups. The team was competitive in just 1/3 of the time and got lucky not to concede 4 or 5 goals. Debrecen were well organized, perfectly located on the pitch and very well tactically prepared. Long shots were the nightmare for Petkov and tonight I expect more action in front of him when Levski will be forced to attack and open spaces at the back.
The Bulgarians are coming in Hungary well motivated and ready for battle but the statistics are well on the home team as Levski have never eliminated a Hungarian side (and collected just 11 away wins in the history of their European visits). Levski will miss the service of Milanov on the back and this will be a major blow as the Bulgarian international is the key player in this defense.
Bet Selection:
Debrecen
Top Price:
2.60 in bet365
Bookmaker of choice:
Thursday, August 20, 2009
UEFA Europa League Tips
Bukomir's Predictions
WON
UEFA Europa League
Play Offs, 20 August, 09
CSKA v Dinamo Moscow
ko 18:00 BST
You can be tempted to take quickly Dinamo here as the team managed to perform on the very high level on a couple of visits, including 1:0 win at Celtic. I will offer you a bit different angle on that one as CSKA produce upsets often in the tournaments and is famous as "giants killer" in its own country. I should admit it is not the team that beat Pool at Anfield just few years ago and then shot Bayer Leverkusen at the same level on the edge of the groups - they have the same spirit though and many young players are motivated to repeat the history tonight. One thing is clear - a full stadium with crazy crowd will welcome Dinamo and make their players feel like in hell - I was there watching Bayer live and know what it is - frantic support indeed.
Team news - CSKA will not feature any typical center forward and will bet on massive midfield line, ball possesion and strong defense. Few injuries will limit coach Penev options but this CSKA is a team of a mecanism not individuals and all players work as one - this is the achievement of the new coach and the focused pre-season games. I think this should be enough for the draw.
Dinamo will be happy with sharing the points and a game at home in the pocket.
Bet selection:
I will take take the risk - 3.20 on bet365.
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
UEFA Champions League Picks
UEFA CL
18 August, Tuesday
Celtic v Arsenal
19:45 BST
I am totally amazed (and thankful) how one game can affect the odds and bring me a massive reward, well, likely. Arsenal were really outstanding on Sunday and 6-1 is a fantastic kick of the campaign but 3.80 for Celtic at home in Europe? Common, it is a real fortress and Dinamo Moscow 1:0 win was just an bad accident and that's all. The stadium will be crowded tonight despite the U2 concert at the same time and I find Celtic fans as vocal as Bono when singing "You will never walk alone". It will be a hell for Arsenal in so called the battle of Britain and the home factor will count.
I am not sure Wenger boys can build upon the scoreline from Sunday. Tonight it is a totally different tournament, stadium, opponent. And instead of shaky Everton (they always start their campaigns so slowly) they will have against a physically determined to smash and squeeze opponent team. Arsenal are doing bad against aggressive hard styles and I am convinced that Celtic will offer them the main course - battle for every inch and brutal fight in the air.
The team showed its spirit in Moscow when managed to recover and progress and also kicked off the campaign in style at Aberdeen last weekend.
Bet Selection:
Celtic
Top Price:
3.80 in bet365
Bookmaker of choice:
Bukomir Tips Chelsea and Wigan
Bukomir's PredictionsBarclays Premier League
Round 2, 18 August, 09
Sunderland v Chelsea
ko 19:45 BST
Did Arsenal stop scoring? We have another doze coming shortly as we are still in the last Premier league weekend, pretty much. We should analyze this second round quickly and not time to loose as some Champions League epic battles are also knocking on the door tonight.
Chelsea at Sunderland should be an away banker and all above 1.50 should be considered as an early Christmas gift. The home team were fantastic on Day 1 beating Bolton on the road but it was all about the brilliant defense and goalkeeper that brought all the points back north. However Bent and Jones up front looks like a bit scary line up as I was thinking of following my "No goal" strategy further. Instead I will take the fix odds on Chelsea - this time the price is good and considering Blues away form from last season and previous meetings here, should be an easy shot. Chelsea will score again, no doubt, as the team is looking sharp with Drogba and Anelka upfront and I bet this should be enough to find Sunderland not prepared enough for big 4 teams.
Bet selection:
I will take Chelsea to win for 1.53 on expekt.com
Wigan v Wolves
ko 19:45 BST
This one should be easy for the home side which will probably remain unchanged after the flying start in Birmingham. The only question mark lays on N`Zogbia fitness. Wigan are performing solid at home, traditionally and is not likely Wolves to feel the rythm so quickly and shock the league with an early upset here.The visitors were so weak on defense as West Ham managed to score 2 only and kick the campaign in style. What makes me believe Wigan will continue the run is the fact that Wolves top scorers are out injured. Sylvan Ebanks-Blake and Doyle are both sidelined and the goals will come from...nowhere, exactly!
Bet selection:
I have no doubts Wigan will take it - I found value in 1.80 offered today by Ladbrokes.
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies to bet on England Premier League as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Sunday Premier League Picks
Bukomir's PredictionsBarclays Premier League
Round 1, 16 August, 09
Man U v Birmingham
ko 13:30 BST
You may say it is a risky bet as United have defensive concerns with long injury list - van den Saar, Vidic and Rafael are out, Evans is doubtful. But I see the same news coming from Blues camp - Martin Taylor and Liam Ridgewell are long-term absentees.
Old Trafford is the last stadium in England Birmingham want to kick off a campaign on and I predict another nightmare to complete the negative record. The only way a goal may come in Red Devils' net is by the same funny knock-know trick as Hull managed to open the score in London (and ruined my fantasy game strategy on Day 1).
Berbatov and Rooney should be unstoppable up front and both will keep the pressure in the right half. I can not see more than 1 or 2 goal opportunities for Birmingham in this one and will follow my strategy to take the Goal/ No goal value instead of low priced home wins.
Bet selection:
I will take "No goal" priced at 1.61 on bet365
Tottenham v Liverpool
ko 16:00 BST
I bet this one to become the first draw for the new season. Liverpool is looking sharp with Torres up front but Gerrard's fitness concerns and defensive problems will cost them the win here. The home team has a massive midfield line which should be enough to hold Reds on the opening. Spurs are chasing a seventh successive home league win and under Redknapp are performing calmly and confidently, specially in front of the fans. 1:1 looks a fair exit to me and I will try it on the correct score market.Bet selection:
I will take the draw - 3.30 offered today by Ladbrokes.
Back up plan - 1:1 for tasty 6.50 in Ladbrokes.
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies to bet on England Premier League as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
Friday, August 14, 2009
Betting Tips on Premier League Weekend
Bukomir's PredictionsBarclays Premier League
Round 1, 15 August, 09
Chelsea v Hull City
ko 12:45 BSTThis one should be a banker as Hull City will find the second season even more harder than what they had survived already. I can not see from where exactly the goals will come from and a repeat of last season start is not likely (specially on the road). Shaky pre-season games will not improve my impression on this team.
Chelsea look sharp, in form, defending as solid as usual. There is no doubt they will grab all the points on the start but there is no value in home win odds. That is why I will search deeper in Goal/ No Goal market and find a worthy shot on Terry and company to keep their net clear.
Bet selection:
I will take a "No goal" option priced at 1.66 on bet365
Aston Villa v Wigan
ko 15:00 BST
This one is my number one choice for the weekend as I bet on Villa to be too strong for Wigan that early in the season. The team has better midfield line and this will be crucial against Martinez' lads. Petrov is recovered and will be probably named captain for Villa - on one of his good days he may sweep the whole central field and deliver great balls to the strikers. Millner was outstanding against Holland and I expect the fact to boost his performance on the opening day.Bet selection:
I have no doubts Villa will win and take quickly generous 1.72 offered today by Ladbrokes.
Blackburn v Man City
ko 15:00 BST
As previous picks were a bit defensive minded I will take one shot for glory and follow my betting instincts blindly. I have just the feeling this game will end in a draw as Blackburn is very hard to be beat at home and City will need time to build upon the summer signings. The visitors have a long injury list and this will affect manager's choice for starting eleven, specially when it comes to the attacking formation. Adebayour is out while Tevez still needs a late fitness test. I see many new faces in both teams and this should level the quality moving the focus from squad skills to a physical battle for every inch on the pitch.Bet selection:
I will take the draw - 3.25 on bet365
Stoke v Burnley
ko 15:00 BST
Another tasty home win. Stoke were solid last season at home and I expect them to continue the run, specially when have recently promoted teams visiting Britannia. The Potters had a nice preparation period and look ready to produce few more upsets throughout the season. The team added Whitehead to the squad and this means more experience. I bet on the home side to control the game in all the 90 minutes while Burnley will find it hard to compete on the level. Do not forget that the visitors were the last team to join the league and therefor are few weeks behind.Bet selection:
I will enjoy 1.90 offered by Ladbrokes for the home win.
Bookmakers of choice:
This season I will use mainly the following bookies to bet on England Premier League as I find them secure, trusted and user friendly. Read more in my best rated bookmakers section or join me in:
Ladbrokes, bet365, Expekt or Bet-at-home.
Subscribe to Betting Premier League Picks via RSS:
Before the game starts & after the final whistle:
I found playing poker as an great alternative on sports betting and a way to increase my bankroll seriously. And it is more fun, that is for sure. You can find me on 1/2 NL Holdem at:
Full Tilt & Bet365
