Sunday, June 28, 2009

Wimbledon 2009 Betting Picks - Day 7

Wimbledon 2009 - Men's
Round 4 Matches

Bet Selection:
Roddick and Hewitt to win
WON

Top Prices:
1.875

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
On Monday we have one of the key rounds in Men's competition at 2009 Wimbledon which will give us answers - is Roddick capable of winning it? How Soderling will manage this shocking 0:10 record against Federer? Oh yes, and this Murray fashion to last forever, eh?

I will accumulate on this Day 7 two most likely wins and bring my stake at bet365 account a nice 1.875 reward. My advice is to follow me and stay aside of the big upset odds that day - just have the strawberries ready and enjoy bet365 live action from most of the courts(before be sure your account is funded).

Roddick performs very solid so far - if you remember he was my choice number two for making it till the end. On this Day 7 he has to face 20th seeded Czech Tomas Berdych who has not conceded a set in three rounds. I bet on Andy to keep this powerful services coming and find Berdych a bit not ready to last too long on 2009 Wimbledon with that rythm. Andy and Berdyck are 2:2 in 4 meetings since 2006 and this sign of quality is a bit frustrating and 1.50 for Roddick's win looks a bit underpriced. However Roddick loves this grass, he had very long runs here and is also more experienced than his opponent.

There is no need to discuss Hewitt at all - he looks like the good old Lleyton and his Aussie blood is boiling again - probably enough to secure him a duel against mighty Murray and the whole nation, actually. Hewitt is 2:0 against Radek who had some medical problems in his last 5 sets battle with Ferer.

I will combine on Monday Andy's and Hewitt's win - that makes 1.875 , "said" from bet365.

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Posted by Aiven at 5:44 PM 2 comments

USA vs Brazil Betting Pick

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Final:
USA vs Brazil

Bet Selections:
Over 2.5 Goals
WON
Top Price:
1.95

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
Our blog favorites USA somehow reached the final rewarding our efforts with huge prices on every stage and will face Brazil for another attempt to shock the world. If we need to elect a betting pick on this final game fix odds are not working well enough - it will be too brave to look for anything than a win for Brazil here; on the other hand 1.40 can be suicidal if somehow USA manage to hold the result leveled after 90 minutes or even to produce a massive upset.

I will take a bit different approach to this game and will pay attention on Over Under market as 1.95 in bet365 for Over 2.5 Goals looks fair to me. It is true that this game will be completely different from the one in the groups stage (3:0 easy win for Brazil) and USA will try to play football this time. They will need to cover the dangerous empty spaces in their part of the field which cost them 3 unanswered goals last time. Are they going to focus on the defense? I do not think so and it is more likely to see the Americans flying in attack hungry for goals and trophy.
You can also bet with close eyes on Brazil to change their game from the last match against South Africa. They will put the pressure on USA defense from the first whistle and will try to score one or two early in the game to secure another title on their account.

I will bet on open game with lots of attacking options on both formations and take 1.95 price offered by bet365.

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Posted by Aiven at 12:46 PM 0 comments

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Wimbledon 2009 Betting Picks - Day 4

Wimbledon 2009 - Men's
Round 2 Matches

Bet Selection:
Juan Martin Del Potro v Lleyton Hewitt
WON
Top Prices:
3.00 Hewitt

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
We smelled it, we just missed it - USA are on the final of Confederations Cup where they will face Brazil for sure (who needs any betting tip on South Africa vs Brazil today). That means we can grab some time and use it to follow closely day 4 at Wimbledon and try to turn things back on track after I have lost my secret favorite (and pride) with Day 1 and Blake's early exit.

Murray and Federer are both like heavy trains which will stop their run just one time - at the final, and give each other a superb fight. Considering their power and the fact I need to see one more game from A. Rodick, we shall improvise today finding value on a game from Wimbledon 2009 Day 4 matches.

1. Juan Martin Del Potro v Lleyton Hewitt
This will be the third match on Centre Court today and Hewitt finally looks hungry again. He found some form as he crushed Robby Ginepri in the first round and I predict the run will continue as I watched him at Queens where he produced few amazing points and gave Andy a fight. Hewitt, the 2002 Wimbledon Champion, will need to build upon the solid serving and to show some of his tricks on the net in order to force Del Potro exit. It won't be easy at all as the Argentinian is in top form, 5 in ranking and ready to repeat Rolland Garros semifinal at least. I just have the feeling Del Potro will find the grass a bit too fast today for his flavour.
I will take this 3.00 for Hewitt offered by bet365.

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Posted by Aiven at 8:03 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Spain vs USA Betting Pick

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Semifinal:
Spain vs USA

Bet Selections:
Draw 90'minutes

Top Price:
5.50

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
We all should agree there is no value at all to put your money down on Spain in this Fifa Confederations Cup semifinal. I will force my luck further and put my finger on USA to hold the 90 minutes draw at least - The Cinderella team unexpectedly find itself at this late stage after a huge win against Egypt and thanks to a humiliating loss on the current world champions account (Italy 0:3 Brazil).


I think we will see USA to wake up in the worst possible moment for Spain and to ride their enthusiasm hard while have nothing to lose...well, again. The team was merely out of the tournament but somehow rose from the dust and, as it was predicted on our blog, brought a marvelous reward back home for all believers (odds around 5.00 - my best hit in the last couple of months). If Clint Dempsey and captain Donovan both have a busy evening it will become hard for Spain to play the best of their game in the midfield. I suppose Bradly will keep goalkeeper Brad Guzan and forward Charlie Davies in the line up as they brought some luck in the game against Egypt. What is for sure - USA will give Spain a real fight and with a piece of luck they can keep the result comfortable long enough.

I should accept Spain are amazing - football can be close to art when you are watching the dancing Spanish midfield line. After making several changes for the final group game , Vicente del Bosque will field his strongest line-up once more. Iker Casillas returns in goal, Xabi Alonso and Xavi will be back in the starting eleven. David Villa and Fernando Torres will terrorize the American defense. What makes me believe then Spain will not decide this fixture in the regular time? The curcumstances mainly - USA are back and will be silly not to use the momentum. Spain are the favorites - tricky position to be before every game - they need to keep a record, they should fight with their own heads where Spain are title holders already.

I will take the shot for 90 minutes draw for a massive 5.50 price offered by bet365.
You can try draw-draw on HT-FT market with small amount of money too.

Good luck and stay tuned for my betting pick for the final exit of this tournament.

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Posted by Aiven at 11:25 PM 0 comments

Sunday, June 21, 2009

2009 Wimbledon Betting Preview

2009 Wimbledon Championship
Betting Preview

Features:
To Win Outright Market
Watch Wimbledon Live


Bow down, show your respect for a moment as the royal tournament is about to begin!
I won't lie if I say Wimbledon is one of my favorite sports events at all (next to the FIFA World Cups and, of course, Tour de France, which we will also follow very closely at the blog next month!). I also built my entire bankroll thanks to several huge hits on Wimbledon in the past and I keep a very warm feeling about this competition. That is why you will find fresh info and verdicts on 2009 Wimbledon here alongside with the regular soccer picks.
Now let me give you a clue to my overall betting strategy towards this year tournament:

Federer vs Murray

Errr...None of them. I know it sounds like pure madness as both of them seem in top form collecting the most prestigious titles lately - Queens for Murray, Roland Garros for Federer (his first, and last, probably, as the French ground does not like him at all). But the good old grass is always full with surprises and I expect one to come from the Americans - Blake (massive price of 101.00 at bet365) or Roddick (just 17.00).

Federer (priced at 1.72 for the title) is on the edge of world's best record in tennis and will chase it hard. The news about defending champion's exit due to an injury were the sugar in Federer's morning tea. That means no more 5 sets desperate battles with Nadal, as we had one last year. To reach the final Federer will need to think mainly about Novak Djokovic, Fernando Verdasco or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, experts said.
Murray (2.75) were absolute superb at Queens' grass and he is ready to break history again. His side of the draw seems clear to the final but does it?

I saw something in James Blake at Queens (where he reached the final against Murray) which makes me believe he can be the secret favorite of this Wimbledon. It was just another Blake - very calm, positive, extremely concentrated on the court and he was expressing a mood like "whatever happens here, I am just preparing my self for Wimledon, folks". I know this sounds a bit crazy and I admit that the price of 101.00 is affecting me somehow - but it is exactly this fever about betting, right? Ride your feeling, find your guy before it starts and rock the tournament with your bright idea later (or hide in a mouse hole when Blake loose in Day 1).

The same about Rodick - he is very fairly prices by the bookies for 2009 Wimbledon, his play looks solid enough to last long and it is just a question of constancy to make it to the final two.

Young Player to watch:

Grigor Dimitrov from Bulgaria - he is one of the most impressive young players lately, quickly climbing the rank table and gaining more experience. He was just about to leave a serious track in Queens but missed it. Now I have the feeling he can last a bit long on Wimbledon and produce an upset for a highly ranked player, for sure. Grigor won last year Wimbledon Junior Championship.
He is starting on June 23 against Igor Kunitsyn and 1.72 for a win here looks fair to me.

 Watch 2009 Wimbledon Live Online
And finally the good news - Wimbledon gets underway at the All England Club tomorrow and bet365 will be streaming over 200 matches live. And yes, I will use bet365 as my main bookmaker for the tournament!
You can bet on over 24 In-Play markets on every live match including Next Point, Next Game, Next Set and Match Winner.
Please note that you must have a funded account in order to view Wimbledon streams.

Good luck and don't forget to come back to the blog for more daily picks and fresh info on Wimbledon. Enjoy the tournament.

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Posted by Aiven at 7:26 PM 4 comments

Italy v Brazil / Egypt v USA Picks

FIFA CC South Africa 2009

June 21
Italy vs Brazil
Egypt vs USA


Betting Verdict
OK, we wanted it, we have it now! The Confederations Cup serves today the desert in the group stage and adds something unexpected to the cherry of the cake - Italy to fight for survival against the mighty Brazil with Egypt still with great chances to progress. As these two will be a nice show for the fans tipsters might find them tricky when it comes to deal with the bookies.
I have got my piece of the cake yesterday when 2.00 on HT of Spain's game brought me a nice reward home (thanks bet365) - so I will shoot for a big prize today with small amount of money and great expectations.

Bookmaker of choice:




1. Italy vs Brazil - LOST
If you look for a maximum safety bet, stay aside of this. We need to calculate on few factors in order to improve on our betting strategy for the game. Experimental side for Brazil again? I don't think so - it might work against demotivated USA but the world champion is a different story. We can expect to see the best possible Brazil squad considering the fact that there is still a scenario in which Dunga's team can stay out of the next stage in case of defeat here. Did Italy learn their lesson after the shocking loss from Egypt? You can bet on that. We will see one totally different side today, very close to perfection - solid defense and smart attacking. Italy needs merely the point here but Azzuri know the win is better in order to have the fortune in your own hands.
I do not expect an open game here but it won't be an ugly defensive battle two. We will see desperate fight for the midfield as both teams have their geious players in this spot - Kaka wil have a special day facing Pirlo and company. It will be decided by a moment of brilliance produced by one of the bunch of stars on the field or will end in a draw.

I will bet on FT draw on Ladbrokes and take generous 3.25 reward hoping both teams to find they are too quality leveled at this stage and at this tournament.


2. Egypt vs USA - WON
Another big game to watch tonight as both teams have something to play for - Egypt for their chance for glory, USA for their pride. Call it madness but I will put USA chances to win in serious consideration. It is possible Egypt not to sustain the pressure coming from the must win and the enormous expectations from the fans and the whole world after 1:0 history record against the current world champion. They have few key injured players, Zidan is another one who will miss the show tonight. I feel Egypt will miss their attacking options tonight and will be shocked to see one organized again USA, ready to produce a battle for the pride and exit the tournament with honor.
USA have few decent players as Donovan and Dempsey and if defense manage to stay stable for even one half we can see a serious upset for the Pharaons (and the bookies).

I will take this shot at huge 5.00 award in Ladbrokes and wait to be crown as the luckiest man of the earth tonight if manage to win it.

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Posted by Aiven at 12:51 PM 1 comments

Saturday, June 20, 2009

South Africa v Spain Betting Preview

FIFA CC South Africa 2009
Betting Pick 1:
South Africa vs Spain
20:30 CET

Bet Selections:
Draw at HT - WON

Top Prices:
2.00

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
It is a tricky game to bet on as Spain are already trough and South Africa can progress even in a case of defeat here - and few more conditions to meet depend on the other game in the group today - Iraq vs New Zealand. It is true Spain are chasing a solid record for games won in a row but sometimes the statistics is nothing when it comes to such a tournament (you saw what happened on Egypt - Italy game).
As one point will work for both teams perfectly the full time draw looks tempting but I will skip it anyway due to the real quality gap between this two and the absolute no idea on the Spain line up and mood. There is no doubt - if Spain really want the win they will take it easily, despite they use Team B for the game.

I have the feeling the home side will feature a defensive line up and will try not to loose the game. If they have 0:0 45 minutes to build upon the strategy might probably work out. The defense looks solid with a giant center-back in its heart who will sweep all the high balls in the penalty area. However Spain generally practice "keep it low - move it fast" ball strategy in opponent's half and this alongside with the unique technique of the Spanish players will be the main challenge for South Africans to overcome. Pienaar's mood will be crucial again in terms of creativity in the midfield.

I will try the half time draw as predicting 45 minutes of testing each other or, if you believe in conspiracy, a half time of friendship and mutual understanding - empty stadiums for the next stage will terrify them all (and Mr. Blatter mainly).

Take the HT draw for a fair 2.00 price offered by bet365.

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Posted by Aiven at 11:52 AM 1 comments

Friday, June 19, 2009

1.40 Gift On Serbia U21 Game


UEFA European U21
Betting Pick 1:
Belarus vs Serbia
18:15 CET

Bet Selections:
Serbia to win

Top Prices:
1.40

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
You did not read the headline wrong, that's right, any value above 1.20 on this game is a pure gift for every tipster who watched carefully first games of this U21 Euro. Serbia were so powerful in the second half against Italy - a shot in the cross bar saved young Italians and shared the points after scoreless 0:0 draw. I saw a Serbian squad capable of lasting long on this tournament featuring genius young players like Sulejmani. And despite the fact they have few injury concerns Serbia can build upon this 1 point and dream for the next stage.

I was expecting more from Belarus as they have eliminated Turkey in the play-off and showed solid play, specially in defense, during the qualifications. They scored one for the opening against Sweden but after that were just crushed and blown 5:1 down. There will be changes for sure but I can't see from where exactly the rebuild of confidence may come.

My advice is to take quickly 1.40 price offered by bet365 this morning as Serbia have one tricky game with Sweden to come last and want to be sure they have the ace in the pocket.

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Posted by Aiven at 11:50 AM 1 comments

Thursday, June 18, 2009

FIFA CC South Africa 2009

Betting Pick 1:
Egypt vs Italy
19:30 BST


Bet Selection:
Draw at HT

Top Prices:
2.25

Bookmaker of choice:



Betting Verdict
Huge success yesterday as I nearly doubled up my bankroll due to the same competition picks and I will take my well deserved rest today placing one for fun. I have the good feeling it will be a very close first half between shaking Italy (despite the 3:1 come from behind against USA) and inspired Egypt (after the thrilling 3:4 result against Brazil). Egypt have everything to lose tonight and the Africans showed on their opening they might last a bit more on this tournament.
The first one was for the world to applause, now it is time to collect merely a point and concentrate on the last and crucial game against USA. The team is full with confidence and showed massive attacking potential and great danger coming from Dortmund striker Mohamed Zidan and Middlesbrough's Mohamed Shawky. I expect them to fight hard, specially in the opening minutes in order to take control on the midfield and the whole game and try to involve the world champion in a tricky game, well, again.

On the other hand, Italy were happy to recover after shocking 10-men lead by USA in the first half and collect all the points on the start. A point here will be just fine and I have seen the Italians doing this for years - not pushing hard in the groups and trying to progress further with minimum efforts.
So I will take this generous 2.25 offered by bet365 this morning on the HT draw and back up with a possible Under 2.5 goals exit.
Good luck!

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Posted by Aiven at 11:43 AM 0 comments
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