Take United and Villa On Sunday

Picks, Sunday,
August 16:
Despite I rarely bet on the first round of any major European league I will take my chance tomorrow for rebuilding some pride and accumulating pretty odds on both games - United vs Newcastle and Aston Villa vs City. While prices for United are not as generous as should be for opening - 1.28 offered by bet365 - the odds on Villa's home game look fair starting from 1.80 - bet-at-home even offers tasty 1.85 for a home win at Villa Park.


United vs Newcastle There is one simple fact that makes me believe in United taking the win on the opening of their league campaign tomorrow when they meet Newcastle at home. Rooney is going to make it recovering from the virus and that will boost Devils up front and make them look even sharper with Tevez working always hard. The defense was more than stable in the Community Shield last week at Wembley and adding one Van den Saar in form it will be really hard for Keegan's lads to break through and fight against their poor record at Old Trafford.


Aston Villa - Man City
Martin is doing amazing job in Villa and I have the feeling this team will upset the favorites for the title this campaign. The team started the season earlier and looks pretty well gelled and ready for top level premier league action. O'Neill gathered quality Englishmen with a couple of foreign signings that will complete the squad and make it competitive and dangerous. Carew is likely to be lined up for this first match and if so the giant may cause all sort of problems to Man City defense.
Visitors have some problems in lack of attacking options for this one and Bojinov will be probably lined up to close the gap in City's front line. Man City is in a kind of a shock after 0:1 from anonymous Danish side in Europe and on my point of view it will be really hard to recover and find the right rythm on the start of the Premier league.

Community Shield As A Fitness Test

Pick, Sunday,
August 10:
Manchester U vs Portsmouth
KO 15:00 BST - LOST
Community Shield@Wembley

Call it madness but I will start building upon my predictions on the final with an away win here and Portsmouth ready to upset the champions early on. The odds for Pompey have started the market at 7 and now it is hard to find them above 5. So, I will use the chance of 5.50 offered by bet365 today. If you are a bit scared from this move you can back up for the draw - bet-at-home offers tasty 2.18 for double chance here (draw or Pompey).

"The Community Shield is a prestigious match but I have used players in it who were not quite fit and we are more or less in the same situation again.", comments Sir Alex in front of the BBC microphone. And it appears it will be true when players such as Neville and Carrick are likely to be lined up tomorrow when United face FA Cup winner Portsmouth at Wembley. I am not convinced United are the same machine as last year, specially without Ronaldo (still injured) and a new quality player in the red attack (Berbatov could be one). Add to this a number of missing players - Owen Hargreaves, Ben Foster, Louis Saha and Park Ji-Sung are all deleted for tomorrow.

On the other hand Pompey look dangerous up front with new signings Crouch and Defoe lined up for this final. The team managed to keep the same squad as last year and added some fantastic quality to the attack. Sol Campbell looks likely to recover from a virus, but midfielders Lassana Diarra and Sean Davis could miss out; Nwankwo Kanu is likely to start on the substitutes' bench.
It will be a fitness battle this one, as Sir Alex mentioned, but Pompey look like hidden favorite to win the trophy as being the better motivated side.

England Championship Pick

Pick, Saturday,
August 9:
Ipswich vs Preston
15:00 BST, LOST
Championship, 1 round

The season in one of the most exciting English leagues will be off tomorrow and searching for a safety bet on the start Ipswich look like solid choice for a home win, fairly priced at 1.90 in bet365 (in comparison a bit less, 1.85 , offered at bet-at-home).

It can be a real boost if a team can kick off the campaign with a pretty win in front of the fans and Ipswich know that perfectly recollecting their last season start. The team is well known with its home form and have a nice record against Preston - Ipswich managed to take 4 wins out of 6 games with North End here. BBC reported Richard Wright is ready to make a second debut for Ipswich tomorrow but what it is for sure Campo will miss that game - very last details need to be arranged before the 34-year old can be lined up. I see David Norris as the only major player to miss the opening suffering a heel injury.
Preston did a great job in the pre-season registering just one loss against the Premier league side Everton with minimum 1:0. To be honest the team looked well gelled in a couple of friendly games and will be a tough opponent, specially at home. What I am not sure is that Preston will improve on the visits as the team is traditionally too weak out of the home ground.
It will be close but I will put my money down on Magilton's lads to start the season in style.

Levski To Hold Werder At Home

Pick, Tuesday,
August 5:
Levski - Werder
19:00 CET, Sofia
Friendly WON

I will bet on Levski to get inspiration from their perfect draw in Champions league last qualification round and hardly supported by the fans to steal the draw from better quality side as Werder is. Take Levski to get the draw at home at tasty 3.25 offered today by bet365 (in comparison a bit less, 3.20 , is the price at bet-at-home). The game will be also available for live betting at bet365 tomorrow evening starting from 6pm BST or 19:00 CET.

I hope I can get back on the right track with my picks when Levski Sofia welcomes Werder Bremen tomorrow evening at its home ground in the Bulgarian capital. The game will be used by the home side for officially presenting the squad for the season and is a general rehearsal before the Champions league action begins. More than 5.000 tickets have been already sold out and the number will surely increase to merely 10 thousands before the game starts.
Levski is still unbeaten in the prepartion period and this is more than 10 games record. The team managed to win against solid Hungarian squads during their camp in Austria including smashing 5:0 against Vasas and 4:2 vs Ferencvarosi. Levski also recorded 0:0 with Austria Wien and 1:0 against Brno. The team have a new coach for that season and get back from Croatia its previous star Georgi Ivanov to lead the attack for one more year.
As I can estimate the current form of both teams Levski is totally capable of gaining the draw tomorrow. The team is also motivated to proove they can be level to top of the European elite.

Pick, Sunday,
August 3:
FC Vaduz v Grasshoppers
16:00, CET
LOST
Switzerland Super League

I will bet on Grasshoppers to get back on the right track on their visits and easily collect all the points here against the freshmen. That choice will bring you the taste price of 2.30 offered today by bet365 (in comparison a bit less, 2.25 , is the price at bet-at-home)

The odds are a bit strange considering the quality of both teams. The reason might be the current form of Zurich as the team showed some contrast in form at the start of the season. The team is doing pretty well in the European summer tournaments but failed at the start at home - 0:1 in their visit to the defending champions. 3:1 win at home against Sion followed and now it looks like the team is finally finding the measure and another win is important in terms of improving, specially on the visits.
Vaduz have registered a win, a draw and a loss and it is obvious that the this team will have some problems with staying at the top level in Switzerland despite the pre-season ambitions.
There is no argue we should shoot at this big odds as offered now because it will be very hard to find such a price for Grasshoppers later on.

Last Month On Betting Picks

It was a good month in terms of growing bankroll here as I managed to balance between the odds and different sports, not risking too much of my money before the season in Europe starts for real. I have tried on rugby, pre-season football friendlies, European tournaments warm up, even I had a shot at Tour de France (very close, indeed). My best achievement for the month can be the draw of Notingham - Everton friendly priced more than 3.00 or the fantastic shot at Australia - New Zealand rugby game in Sidney when Wallabies surprised for amazing home win against the history.

Statistics, July, 08
Picks: 7
Won: 4 or 57 %