PITTSBURGH V SEATTLE – STEELERS FAVOURITE AT -4
Live betting - Su Feb 5 – 6:00pm ET
bet365 Super Bowl Money Line … Pittsburgh 20/37, Seattle 33/20
Either way, the team that wins the Super Bowl must be considered as a surprise. Pittsburgh were as big as 50/1 after Week 13, while Seattle were pre-season 40/1 shots. Pittsburgh have since won seven in a row to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995, including a swashbuckling playoff run which saw them join the 1985 Patriots as the only clubs to win three consecutive road games in the preseason. In comparison, Seattle have had a relatively easy time of it getting to their first Super Bowl, handing out a 20-10 the Redskins in the divisional round, and then blowing out the Carolina Panthers 34-14 in the NFC Championship Game. On that evidence, we made Pittsburgh early favourites at -3 here at bet365, and this has now been bet down to -4. The total is set at 47.5 (from 47).
Although this is technically a road game for both, the well-backed Steelers
can expect to have an element of home advantage on Sunday. Detroit isn’t
too far from Pittsburgh, and their fans should easily out-number those from
the Pacific north-west. The reduced Seahawk fans will take also away the
noise advantage that played such a factor throughout the regular and
postseason back in Washington. And, playing on an artificial surface should
prove a bigger disadvantage to Seattle. Pittsburgh only recently played in
a Dome when defeating the Colts, whilst Seattle’s only indoor game was way
back in Week 5 against St Louis.
ONE MORE FOR THE ROAD?
Not that Pittsburgh should feel disadvantaged playing away from home. Their
last three wins all came on the road, starting with Cincinnati in the Wild
Card playoffs, before a 21-18 win at Indianapolis, a team who many
predicted would win the Super Bowl after it’s 13-0 start. However, their
best road performance came in Denver, winning the AFC championship game
34-17 over a club which hadn’t lost at home all season. During the main
season, Seattle’s three defeats all came on the road – Jacksonville,
Washington and Green Bay (admittedly at a time when the number one seed was
all but secure) – and they struggled to beat San Francisco (27-25) and
Tennessee (28-24), two of the poorest NFL teams in 2005. So, the omens are
good for Pittsburgh, and they look a solid bet at -4.
Super Bowl XL Pick: Pittsburgh -4 @ 10/11
SUPER BOWL ‘XL’ LIVES UP TO ITS BILLING
This year’s 40th Super Bowl has been given an apt name: XL, which stands
for ‘extra large’ in the United States.
First Score of Game
You’d think that it would be easier to score a field goal than a TD, but
both of these teams like to make their first score of the game in the end
zone. The Steelers have scored a six-pointer first in 14 of their 19 games
this season, while the Seahawks have gone one better.
Pick: Touchdown @ 4/7
Team scoring first wins game
No team knows how to protect a lead like Pittsburgh, especially in the
playoffs. If the Steelers can put some early points on the board, then
expect them to do anything to protect that lead.
Pick: Yes @ 4/7
Penalties - Total number of penalties made by both teams, over or under 12
½?
This total is probably based on the fact that the Seahawks and the Steelers
were two of only eight teams in the NFL to commit fewer than100 penalties
over the season. However, everything changes under the glare of the Super
Bowl lights, especially for Super Bowl virgins. The Panthers were flagged
12 times in 2004 in their first ever appearance, while Baltimore also
succumbed to nerves with nine penalties in 2001.
Pick: Over 12 ½ @ 10/11
Sacks - Total quarterback sacks made in the game, over or under 4 ½?
The Steelers defence is nasty, but it’s the Seahawks that lead the NFL in
sacks in the regular season with 50 (three more than Pittsburgh), led by
Rocky Bernard on 8 ½ (scored two more against Carolina in the NFC
Championship game). For Pittsburgh, Joey Porter is leading all linebackers
with 10 ½ sacks this season, and he’s a constant source of irritation to
offences.
Pick: Over 4.5 Sacks @ 10/11
Double Result
If Pittsburgh is a solid bet at -4, an even better bet could be on our half
time / full time market, which sees the AFC champions available at Evens to
be leading at both the interval and at the end of the fourth quarter. This
is also backed up by the fact that six of the last seven Steelers’ games
have followed this trend.
Pick: Pittsburgh / Pittsburgh @ Evens
Highest Scoring Quarter
Super Bowl fans have been treated to some crazy finishes in recent years.
In six of the last seven finals, the highest scoring quarter has been the
fourth, yet our betting for the most productive quarter is like any other
NFL game – second quarter as favourite, ahead of the fourth, with the first
and third as rags. Only once in the past 20 years has the first quarter
copped, while the third looks bad value at 13/8 given that scoring between
the 16th and 30th minutes has been the most productive only three times
(once in the last 14).
Pick: Fourth Quarter @ 9/5
