Betting Verdict I took it that long to elect my tip for this great mountains stage because I was a bit confused yesterday. Contador did what everyone expected from him - massive, solid attack in the closing kms that almost brought him the jersey (however the question for Astana leadership is still open while Lance found he has the legs to follow). I was not able to see who will be in charge of the victory today - I have never seen such behavior from the favorites and so defensive minded teams - this opens gaps and chances for breakaway groups almost every stage. That is why I will take the match ups strategy for this one and look for Frank Schleck to defend my picks on the start of this year Tour and leave a track in this particular stage, at least. I don't think the route today is suitable for Armstrong and somehow have the feeling he will lost few seconds more and step back in the overall standing. Two category 1 climbs are perfect for Contador and Astana to set the rythm for the whole race and the only team capable of following them should be Saxo Bank and Schleck brothers in particular. Frank and Andy have to prove their excellent reputation of solid climbers and I can not see better stage and moment in the first half of Tour de France for rebuilding some pride.
I will take Schelck for 1.83 to finish ahead of Lance and follow my instinct Schleck brothers will leave a track in mountains stage 8 today.
Betting Verdict No one can argue we have lots of action early in this 2009 Tour de France as Astana are fighting to elect a leader (Lance Armstrong looks in shape ahead of mountain stages and missed the yellow on a second in the TTT yesterday) and Columbia shuffled the cards joining the tricky crosswind on Monday.
Assuming Astana are heavy favorites to crush the competition after the team trial on Tuesday but now we should concentrate on the last flat stage before the climbers say “Ole!”. Stage 5 consists of Le Cap d’Agde - Perpignan rout (196.5km) which is mostly flat roads toward the finish in Perpignan. Exactly this wide, straight finish makes me believe we will see again the magic of sprinters’ teams. Is anyone or any team capable of stopping superb Cavendish of taking another one in his pocket? It will be hard but not impossible to join the Columbia train.
How this stage 5 looks like (thanks Eurosport, again - do not forget to watch the action exclusively on this channel - great coverage):
I have Garmin in mind here but rode it hard in TTT and conquered Astana for the overall leadership. Wiggins managed to build upon his great performance in the prologue and now should follow the action closely. I suppose this will be a nice motivation factor for the team which will count on Tyler if they have the position before the final. The question is how many efforts the team has invested in the time trial?
However as I saw how Columbia team is riding this Tour I can not imagine how someone can stop Cavendish if his team leads the sprinter to the final meters. He is in top form, powerful, extremely hard to be followed when once started on sprint. The only way is to find Cavendish not ready on the right position before the fight starts in the last 500 m or so.
Take Cavendish as Columbia obviously preserved efforts yesterday.
Betting Verdict I was happy to see my winning series continued with tips and picks on 2009 Tour de France as I got the winner in Stage 1 (which is not an achievement at all with Cancellara just crashed the competitors in a world champion manner). Two flat stages followed (just leave them for Columbia and do not mess with Cavendish) and the one on Tuesday seems like the cherry on the cake before so awaiting Saturday entering in the high mountains.
We have the team trial in stage 4 starting and finishing in Montpellier. Let's preview it first, thanks to Eurosport:
I was so tempted to search for a massive upset here and a win for Garmin but Astana were so, so impressive on the prologue that I just can not imagine anyone to steal the win from them. Astana, with Contador, Andreas Kloeden as well as Americans Leipheimer and Lance Arsmtrong, had four riders in the top 10 in Monaco - these are the facts. But what impressed me more was the massive improvement in Contador's time trials and the unique downhill technique for Kloeden. Leipheimer and Lance are tradionally strong in time trials and they were both on the top of their riding. We can easily predict, despite (or because) the longer distance, that they will be unstoppable on Tuesday.
It will be hard enough for Cancellara to get support from Saxo Bank team in the trial, so do not bet on him to hold the whole Astana team. If you dare look for Garmin win here - I still believe Astana are too powerful but in sports there is always a slightly chance for upset and 4.33 looks tasty. Wiggins, who joined Garmin this season, will be helped by specialists David Millar, Zabriskie and Vande Velde and the four were in the top 20 in Saturday's time trial in Monaco. If you look for more safety bet on this stage 4 of Tour de France you can take the match ups odds and 1.38 for Garmin to beat Saxo Bank.
One more thing - avoid Columbia in your betting selections for this stage - they actually did their TTT in stage 3 and rode massive against the wind in the closing minutes to shuffle the general clasification cards. Armstrong is getting stronger, eh?
I would like to add some thoughts to my betting pick on stage 1 - 2009 Tour de France from yesterday that might make it clearer for those of you who is searching for better odds and a kind of an upsets today in Monaco. Let's first preview the stage 1:
I am drinking my morning coffee now browsing the odds at bet365 and 13.00 for Evans to triumph today started to look tempting. He was always good in trials and will probably stay competitive for this one. Do not get me wrong - I am still pretty sure in Cancellara win here (and actually put my money down on him yesterday) but you know in cycling you will need to have a back up bet for more emotions. So, I will change my second bet from Contador (7.00) to Cadel Evans and enjoy the stage.
I also think Lance is taking this first stage pretty seriously and 12.00 for him also looks like worthy bet. I suppose we all remember his previous time trials in France, eh? "Planet Armstrong" was great to watch on Eurosport yesterday brought back some beatiful memories.
Of course, you can browse all the options on bet365 and choose one for your self.
Do not miss also my betting picks on TDF 2009 winner as the odds are still delicious. Who is your favorite? Comment or give your vote in the pool on your right.
Features: To Win Outright Market Stage 1 - Time Trial Pick
I was waiting for it since the last rider finished last year in Paris. I could smell it during the Giro and really felt it so close when watching Contador and Valverde climbing the Mont Ventoux monster at Dauphiné Libéré. Now it is here - one of the most entertaining sports event in the world - Tour de France 2009 - starts tomorrow on its way from Monaco to Paris. Be sure you will find all the previews, my betting picks on almost every stage of the Tour and few comments more on riders and teams featured at the blog. If you want the numbers -running from Saturday July 4th to Sunday July 26th 2009, the 96th Tour de France contains 21 stages and will cover a total distance of 3,500 kilometres. Get on the bike!
Pick on the Winner As you probably know better than me cycling is one of the hardest sports to bet on - odds are too crazy to be analyzed, too many changing factors, shaking riders form, team's strategies and collaborations. However that also means you can earn massive awards if you manage to put your finger on the winning horse before they get on the course. Someone can call this a pure lottery, to place any bet before stage 7 of this year tour but I will take the risk for my self and hope for good days on the road.
Alberto Contador is the magic name that comes from every related article as Tour de France 2009 most likely winner - and bookies are part of this choral voice offering just 1.95 (as bet365 does) for Contador to repeat his 2007 success in France. And I will take it today considering the fact that it can be 1.062 tomorrow after a time trial pretty suitable for Alberto's style. What makes me believe Contador have all the stars on his side (literally too) is mainly his performance I saw in Dauphiné Libéré - he was climbing monster hills as on excursion having fun with holding every attack and helping his Spanish mates! It was also true he was working on his bike standing not sitting but it was hard to find a slithly sign of tiredness on his face. There are even few more important factors to consider: he will be helped by a superbly strong team in the team time-trial in stage four. With Armstrong and Levi on his side Contador can break this tour early on. If...manage to stay a team leader. Yes, this is my only doubt here and will make me have a back up plan as I am sure Lance Armstrong will shoot few bullets on the jellow jersey also. That makes Astana' leadership a cloudy issue and can bring troubles for the team management. It is absolutely not acceptable to have so many Tour de France titles, to be a legend, to be 37 of age and to be calm and satisfied with carring the water bottles to the whole team! 4.00 is a worthy option for Lance - even you take it just to keep the good memories alive.
Ok, but who else can make it and bring me a solid reward for risking my money not on Contador? I will skip Sastre (he will be brilliant on the climbs but will loose too much in the trials), Menchov (to repeat his Giro success, no way), always second Cadel (too weak in the mountains and too defensive minded), Andy Schleck is another bookies favorite with 7.00 but..noo, too young gun to hold the preasure (as last year, his ambitions died in just one bad stage), but his brother Frank? 51.00 on him sounds like a music to my tipster ear and I will take it as a back up plan. It is true we saw a horrible fall in the Amstel Gold Race for Frank Schleck but he was back on the bike so quickly and even managed to win his home race, the Tour of Luxembourg, in June. Last year he was strong on the mountains and his brother can help him a lot if decides to support him during the whole race. Of course, the other scenario is also available as Andy can be very competitive for podium finish too - Pyrenees will decide everything inside that family!Stage 1 - Individual Time Trial Pick - WON
What we have here are 15.5 kmstarting from Monaco with the same city hosting the finish. Considering the profile of the route we can easily decide it was made for Contador but I strongly recommend to consider also a win for the Olympic champion Cancellara . Fabian is on hist best in such races and is probably the best from all the riders here when it comes to individual time trials. He won Tour de Suisse time trial exit just few days ago. I suppose a stage win here for Fabian is aim number one in Team Saxo Bank strategy and I will give them credit to take it.
Bet365 offers 1.57 for Cancellara and massive 7.00 for Contador to win this Stage 1 of 2009 Tour de France.
Bookmaker of choice: I suppose we all agree Federer will reach the final as easy as playing ball in his backyard - he is just brilliant so far, playing top class tennis and I can not see anybody capable of winning against him here. 1.062 offering for his game with Haas is a joke that nobody should take.
The semifinal desert at this year Wimbledon is the other match where we find Murray facing Roddick. You won't be surprised at all when you look to my pick for this game - yes, I will keep my strategy from Day 1 and bet on Roddick to repeat the 2005 appearance at the final. I am convinced Murray can't manage the pressure coming from the whole nation with millions of eyes stared at him. I also saw nothing special came from Murray here - yes, he played good tennis so far, true, but he was on a blink of elimination against Wawrinka and is lucky enough to make it till the semi. I am just a bit worried by the statistics show Murray leads head-to-head encounters 6-2, including victory in their only match on grass, at Wimbledon 2006. But you should take the risk at that stage if you search for a worthy bet.
Odds arround 4.00 for Roddick are a must shot. I will take it hoping the American will manage to place maximum first serves and somehow turns ‘C'mon, Andy’ from the crowd on his side.
2009 Tour de France
